Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 114.661525 131.805011 151.264697 175.117914 203.743208 237.209116 279.615786
2025-12-14 92.992701 114.731079 141.681403 178.014873 226.438923 289.802165 380.759896
2025-12-21 78.462212 101.882152 132.858502 177.738116 242.661657 335.728069 484.159786
2025-12-28 71.771300 97.344257 133.110446 188.336554 274.401564 408.771957 646.167664
2026-01-04 66.041337 92.879484 132.219729 196.380150 303.136826 483.199166 833.331816
2026-01-11 61.089389 88.631024 130.678952 202.647838 329.680527 559.804668 1050.220846
2026-01-18 56.267900 83.827421 127.397831 205.180228 349.871548 629.577122 1279.170484
2026-01-25 51.746139 78.876454 123.092095 205.016346 364.764101 692.526717 1518.084223
2026-02-01 47.128711 73.218028 116.831565 200.223417 369.548005 735.549148 1727.197606
2026-02-08 43.117475 68.135110 110.923219 195.108560 372.528787 775.200201 1945.306776
2026-02-15 39.724377 63.761912 105.750025 190.592572 375.793945 816.260109 2187.315338
2026-02-22 38.901760 63.761592 108.436773 202.044033 416.536597 961.374616 2834.926875
2026-03-01 36.768853 61.303906 106.435787 203.894195 436.540746 1061.949562 3411.752510
2026-03-08 35.106092 59.549113 105.588146 208.126715 463.541974 1192.680556 4211.143828
2026-03-15 33.135144 57.031604 102.956097 207.992545 479.506312 1297.048805 4995.824294
2026-03-22 32.632816 57.248551 105.823836 220.915297 533.665898 1547.138244 6752.877028
2026-03-29 31.836358 56.808538 107.269907 230.719984 581.994746 1801.997502 8903.186862
2026-04-05 30.894758 55.986536 107.800557 238.364850 626.276795 2066.118519 11563.792918
2026-04-12 29.660465 54.458893 106.622251 241.456197 657.433329 2295.641747 14431.982411
2026-04-19 28.283553 52.521558 104.329209 241.256525 678.002580 2492.268931 17475.097883
2026-04-26 26.628078 49.874750 100.174668 235.409880 678.058459 2595.864126 19899.881555
2026-05-03 25.081319 47.349898 96.078354 229.177443 675.470559 2687.547505 22476.284092
2026-05-10 23.705232 45.095456 92.415847 223.680814 674.398740 2788.675142 25506.364816